Publications

A Legacy of Strategic Research

Strategic Foresight Group (SFG) has built a distinguished record of research through its publications. These studies explore the long-term forces shaping conflict, cooperation, and global change. At the same time, they examine emerging challenges and identify opportunities for constructive action. Our first report, The Future of Pakistan (2002), launched a programme to anticipate future risks and develop policy options. In doing so, it established the foundation for SFG’s distinctive approach to strategic analysis. Since then, SFG has published extensively across a wide range of global issues. Moreover, every publication combines forward-looking research with practical recommendations for policymakers and other stakeholders. As a result, this commitment has remained central to our work.

Addressing Global Challenges

Over more than two decades, our research has addressed both regional and international challenges. For example, we have explored the future of South Asia and analysed the costs of conflict in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Middle East. Through these studies, we have highlighted the human, economic, and political consequences of instability. At the same time, we have identified pathways towards greater cooperation and lasting peace. In addition, our Blue Peace publications have examined water cooperation in the Middle East, the Nile Basin, and the Indian subcontinent. Importantly, they demonstrate how shared water resources can become a foundation for trust, dialogue, and regional stability. More recently, our research has expanded to address the opportunities and risks created by new technologies. Specifically, this includes studies on artificial intelligence in nuclear command systems and the broader implications of advanced AI for global security.

A Resource for the Future

Together, these publications reflect the evolution of SFG’s research and its response to a changing world. Presented chronologically, they offer a clear record of our intellectual journey and policy engagement. Furthermore, they provide a valuable resource for policymakers, researchers, journalists, students, and anyone interested in global affairs. Ultimately, they demonstrate how ideas have developed over time while responding to emerging global priorities. Above all, they reflect SFG’s enduring commitment to evidence-based analysis that supports informed decisions on the world’s most complex challenges.

Blue Peace in International Finance

Trans-boundary cooperation in the water sector is much desired by various stakeholders. But the big question is how to mobilise resources for collaborative infrastructure. So far, most riparian countries depend on the World Bank and other multi-lateral banks, but data shows that Development Finance Institutions have made a very weak commitment to collaborative water projects between countries. There is a recent discourse about harnessing private capital. But it has proved difficult to respond to the hard commercial objectives of the private sector. In this challenging background, the new SFG report “Blue Peace in International Finance” provides many answers to difficult questions.
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Blue Peace in International Finance

Water and Violence: Mali

In the recent past, Mali has been at the center of ethnic clashes and attacks by terror groups such as JNIM. Being one of the most water rich countries in West Africa, the bulletin explores the reasons as to why water resources and water infrastructure in Mali may become potential targets by terror groups and other armed non-state actors operating in the region. Since Mali has many transboundary rivers flowing through it, any attacks on water infrastructure in Mali will have implications for the Sahel region as well.
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WATER AND VIOLENCE MALI

The Middle East Blue Strike List

The strategy of ISIS (Daesh) to attack water infrastructure in Iraq and Syria was a key factor behind its success. As soon as it lost the control over Mosul dam in Iraq and Tabqa dam in Syria, its influence and territory eroded in a matter of weeks. Other terrorist groups have been also using this strategy. As the World Water Day 2019 approaches, the Middle East Blue Strike List provides a comprehensive listing of all terrorist attacks using water as a weapon of war or a target of violence in the Middle East since 2011.
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Blue Strike List

Water and Violence: Ukraine

The Presidential and Parliamentary elections in Ukraine this year offer an opportunity of a possible breakthrough in the Donbass conflict. If this window of opportunity is not used wisely, the situation can deteriorate further. Away from media headlines, one of the tragic consequences of the conflict has been the risk to water facilities in Donetsk and Luhansk, especially the treatment plants near the line of contact and the adjoining stocks of chlorine. Despite 3 Minsk agreements, shelling on these assets has not declined and poses a potentially grave risk. What are the prospects of securing critical water infrastructure in Donbass? What can be done by the relevant actors and the international community. The Second Volume of Blue Peace Bulletin has a focus on Water and Violence in Ukraine
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WATER AND VIOLENCE - UKRAINE

Water and Violence: Yemen

Global High Level Panel on Water and Peace called for the protection of water resources and infrastructure from violent conflicts and terrorist acts. In this volume, we examine the issue of protecting water in Yemen.
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WATER AND VIOLENCE YEMEN

Benefits of Co-operation in the Middle East

As Blue Peace in the Middle East enters a new phase, this publication outlines what could be possible if the countries in the region would prioritize peace and development over conflict and antagonism. It is proposed as a document for discussion. The experts in the Middle East can use the framework to take clues from some of the ideas and develop a comprehensive and realistic plan of action for rebuilding the Middle East in the spirit of peace and cooperation.
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Benefits Of Cooperation - Full Report

Conference Reports

P5 Experts Roundtable- Online on AI- Nuclear Nexus

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P5 Experts Roundtable on Nuclear Risk Reduction