publications

  • Global Security and Economy: Emerging Issues, 2008

    Strategic Foresight Group presents its report on issues that will have greatest impact on the 21st century. Surprises are in store. Will the United States and Iran enter into strategic cooperation? Will the technological base of the world economy change in a fundamental way by 2020? Will extremism replace terrorism as the greatest risk to global security? Will a new global philosophical discourse appear on the world stage? The report debates these and other critical issues.

    US$ 20 INR Rs.625
  • The greatest challenge of the 21st century is for us to come together to discover our common identity, reaffirm and restore core human values, to appreciate our common history and to create a shared future. In order to shape an inclusive world in which the West, Islam and the Rest have a stake, it is necessary to shift from the centuries old model based on the doctrine of force, to a model based on the collaborative harnessing of the spirit of humanity. The use of force in the name of religion, ideology, race or other belief systems underpins the pursuit of power. It is in the essential nature of states to seek and expand power. It is in the essential nature of human beings to explore the principles of co-existence. We need to achieve a basic balance between power and principles. An Inclusive World: In which the West, Islam and the Rest have a stake, is an essay deriving insight from a study of incidences of terror in all parts of the world and reviews why terrorism takes places in all parts of the world, especially Latin America, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. It examines why extremism may replace terrorism as the greatest threat to world security and engulf politics of the United States and Europe. It exposes contradictions in self serving Eastern and Western discourse. It also envisages the framework for a sustainable global security architecture, where co-existence triumphs over discord and hope wins over fear. It proposes building blocs of an alternative future that are politically feasible as well as presents action plans for a series of initiatives for leaders, experts, and civilians to collaborate on.

    This publication is also available in Arabic. The Institute for Peace Studies affiliated with the Suzanne Mubarak Women's International Peace Movement and hosted by the Bibliotheca Alexandrina issued an Arabic version of An Inclusive World.

    USD 15/INR 625
  • Cost of Conflict in Sri Lanka report uses creative analytical tools developed by the Strategic Foresight Group to assess the impact of conflict on different sections of Sri Lankan economy and society as well as its comprehensive impact on the future of the nation. The report builds on and studies not only the direct costs of conflict such as human deaths, increased military expenditure, or economic losses in the form of lowered foreign direct investment or losses in tourism. But, it also studies the effects of a two decade plus conflict in promoting societal corrosion and segregation, political polarization and extremism and regional disparity. The report also provides 2005-2010 scenarios for Sri Lanka under the differing situations of peace, ceasefire and conflict.

    US$ 30 INR Rs.625
  • The objective of this report is to examine the challenges facing South Asia in the next 20 years, at a time when the region is likely to be influenced by global developments as well internal dynamics. The report studies the various economic, social, political and security sectors in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal, to come up with future projections for each of these individual nations as well as the common reality for the region. The report demonstrates the factors likely to affect the region from 2005-2025 and the impact it is likely to have on the region. It states that South Asia will encounter a world where the basic concepts of sovereignty of state, separation of religion and polity, and the unity of super-force and super-power will be challenged, and the world will see a shift from the West to the East. It also studies the impact of changes in geopolitics in the neighboring region, the impact of wildcards such as path breaking technological innovation and development or the use of a nuclear weapon by a state or non state actor.

    US$ 25 or INR Rs.625
  • The International Herald Tribune calls it ‘Kashmir’s real story!” The Final Settlement: Restructuring India-Pakistan Relations, is an honest, though biting analysis of the psychology and ground realities of the two countries based on the comprehensive understanding of developments taking place over the last three decades. The conflict between India and Pakistan currently extends to the entire South Asian region, from Afghanistan to Bangladesh. Of this wide spread conflict, the Jammu & Kashmir component is known internationally. The Jammu & Kashmir issue itself has several dimensions. To India, it is a test of secularism. To Pakistan, it is a source of strategically important rivers. To the people of Jammu & Kashmir, it is a matter of living in peace with dignity. Therefore, in all its complexity, the search of a final settlement between the two must be based on an analysis of the three essential elements in the bilateral relationship – fire, water and earth. In this report, SFG states that a final settlement between the two will have to be based on realistic analysis of the water situation in the entire Indus River Basin – an element, hitherto unknown.

    US$ 22 INR Rs.250
  • The Brussels Consensus was the document on the principles and policies for a safer world that was adopted by the participants of the Second International Roundtable at the European Parliament. The Brussels Consensus is a set of innovative policy measures, including principles of sustainable global security, zero tolerance for acts of terror, a strategy of disaggregation while dealing with groups engaging in terror, and international cooperation for the transformation of societies at risk.

    Download:
    Brussels Consensus
  • Pakistan’s biggest challenge will be in the context of relations between the federal government and the provinces. The future of Pakistan's provinces will have bearing on geo-politics of the entire region. Any tension between NWFP and the rest of Pakistan will impact Afghanistan. Problems in Balochistan will affect Afghanistan and Iran. Friction between Punjab and Sindh can cause, in the extreme case, massive refugee influx into India. Thus, the future of Pakistan's provinces will subtly govern the future of extended South Asia. An analysis of Pakistan's provinces, at this juncture, is thus pertinent and Pakistan’s Provinces does just that. The study begins with a macro overview of Pakistan's economy followed by inter-provincial comparisons that are based on our understanding of Pakistan's economy and society. The subsequent chapters deal with each province separately. Finally, our perspectives are synthesized in an effort to outline future scenarios for Pakistan.

    US$ 15 INR Rs.295
  • For the first time in the 57 years of hostility between India and Pakistan a comprehensive assessment of the cost of conflict between the two countries has been made by Strategic Foresight Group in this report. The past assessment of the cost of conflict has been limited to military expenditure and opportunity cost of trade. The Cost of Conflict between India and Pakistan, takes into account comprehensive economic costs, socio-political damage, military costs, diplomatic costs, human costs and even the implications of the nuking of Mumbai and Karachi. The report has also estimated Gross Terror-economy Product (GTP) of Kashmir and Pakistan and likely financial and human costs that the two countries will incur in the next five years if they do not consolidate the gains made at the SAARC Summit at Islamabad in January 2004. It is a rare document, presented in graphical form for easy and quick comprehension by decision makers.



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