publications

  • For the first time in the 57 years of hostility between India and Pakistan a comprehensive assessment of the cost of conflict between the two countries has been made by Strategic Foresight Group in this report. The past assessment of the cost of conflict has been limited to military expenditure and opportunity cost of trade. The Cost of Conflict between India and Pakistan, takes into account comprehensive economic costs, socio-political damage, military costs, diplomatic costs, human costs and even the implications of the nuking of Mumbai and Karachi. The report has also estimated Gross Terror-economy Product (GTP) of Kashmir and Pakistan and likely financial and human costs that the two countries will incur in the next five years if they do not consolidate the gains made at the SAARC Summit at Islamabad in January 2004. It is a rare document, presented in graphical form for easy and quick comprehension by decision makers.

  • Launched on the eve of the US attack on Iraq, Shifting Sands: Instability in Undefined Asia addresses tensions between the impact of events and underlying structural realities in Undefined Asia – consisting of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Though undefined as it is outside any established institutional arrangements or group of nations, it is interlinked by oil, terrorism, and strategic concerns of big powers. As the US military involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq creates a spell of uncertainty many questions are bound to come to surface. Will the US actions in Undefined Asia primarily determine the future of the region? Or are there internal dynamics, which render US actions superficial? Many of the predictions made in Shifting Sands have proved to be correct within a few months of its publication. The report had predicted the withdrawal of American forces from Saudi Arabia, armed skirmishes between Afghanistan and Pakistan, rise of terrorism in Undefined Asia following the US victory in Baghdad. Many other predictions await the test of time. In order to understand what will happen in the world’s largest hot spot in the first decade of the twenty first century, the report is a must read for everyone.

    US$ 60 INR Rs.1350
  • The report outlines India’s development model that has created three economies- business class, bike and bullock cart economy. Will this division of the Indian economy cause a division of the Indian mind, or will unity of the Indian mind lead to the integration and transformation of the Indian economy? What does the future hold for India? Three scenarios have been put forward: Breakdown, Break-up and Breakthrough. What will be the appropriate strategies to make the best scenario possible? Will India manage to place herself in a virtuous cycle of prosperity and peace? This report provides insightful and innovate answers to these questions. It is essential reading for anyone who is interested in India’s future.

    US$ 25 INR Rs.625
  • The Future of Pakistan looks at Pakistan in view of its central role in the war in Afghanistan. General Pervez Musharraf has supported the US led coalition and vowed to free Pakistan of sectarianism and terrorism. Can he succeed? How long will he survive in the hot seat in Rawalpindi? What will be the policies of his successor? Will orthodox religious forces seize control of the Pakistani state, and if so when? How will Pakistan’s economy perform in the next ten years? Will there be adequate food and water? Will Sindh and Baluchistan try to separate from Pakistan? Will there be a war between India and Pakistan? What will be the cause of the next major India-Pakistan war, since it will not be over Kashmir? Will nuclear weapons be used? The report answers the above questions and more, using scientific methods of strategic foresight. Since its publication in May 2002, many of the forecasts made in the report have already come true.

    US$ 45 INR Rs.1050


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