Ba’ath Troubles Reveal External Interference in Iraq


- By Gitanjali Bakshi

September, 2009

The first few weeks of September were host to a series of mudslinging events between Syria and Iraq. The Iraqi administration accused Syria of housing Ba’athists suspected of perpetrating the August truck-blasts in Baghdad; the Syrians challenged them for concrete evidence. Iraq then demanded that Syria hand over the suspects and Syria responded with a flat refusal. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki went so far as to request for an international tribunal to settle the dispute but the Syrians insisted that they would not betray those who took sanctuary within their territory, as Maliki himself had done during Saddam’s reign.

The two countries butted heads, subjected each other to a slew of verbal assaults, and recalled their respective ambassadors. The altercation was reminiscent of an age-old rivalry shared between these two states since the origins of the Ba’ath movement. Perhaps this is why the media lost interest after the dust had settled.

Yet, despite the decline of ‘Ba’athist’ talk in the media, the incident has certain interesting signposts that point toward strategic and political concerns for the new state of Iraq as well as the rest of the region. The altercation in the last few weeks between Iraq and Syria goes further than the bombings in Baghdad. Syrian support for former Ba’athist leaders can secure her a considerable position of influence in Iraq.

Ba’athists placed in pivotal positions can gain access to intelligence and important Iraqi security information for Syria. The inadequate security measures during the August bombings in Baghdad have already raised doubts and concerns about the allegiances of the Iraqi police and army. If Syria can infiltrate Iraq’s security apparatus it could undermine the independent working of Iraq’s defense capabilities.

Legitimate popular support for Ba’athists in the Iraqi administration can translate into political sway for Damascus. We haven’t seen the last of the Iraqi Ba’athist party just yet; Ba’athism after all enjoys forty years of history in Iraq and the Ba’athist ideology of a ‘renaissance’ or a ‘resurrection’ of sorts can be quite appealing to a new and politically ambitious Iraqi public. Consequently, the rise of popular support for Ba’athists in Iraq could potentially help facilitate a Syrian connection in Iraqi politics.

Growing Syrian influence could also improve their position in Iraq’s oil export network. Before the 2003 war Iraq was producing up to 2.5 million barrels of oil a day and a majority of this was exported. In 2009, Iraq produces approximately 3.5 million barrels a day and analysts are speculating that oil production will surge to even greater heights in the future. Several Arab countries are looking to increase their oil imports from Iraq in the coming years and Syria would no doubt want to place itself in an advantageous position as well.

Over the last couple of years Syria has proved to be a formidable player in the Middle East. The Arab republic has managed to muster several new opportunities for gaining power in the region and still wields a substantial amount of control in Lebanon. The advancement of Ba’athists in Iraq will only help to fortify this position of power even further. After considering the following points, it seems easier to understand why the current Iraqi government is concerned about Syrian support for a potentially resurgent Baath party.

Yet Iran will pose a significant challenge to Syrian aspirations in Iraq. A recent coalition amongst Shiite parties in Iraq is gearing up for the national elections next year. The coalition includes the largest Shiite party, the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) and the Sadrist bloc. Both these parties are close to Tehran and their victory in elections next year could give Iran further access into Iraq. What will this power-play will mean for Syrian-Iranian relations? While American forces stood guard on Iraq’s territory, Syria and Iran provided each other support by forming an anti-US alliance. Yet now that US forces are slowly vacating their space in the Middle East, both of them will try to vie for a favorable position in the ‘new’ Iraq.

Iran’s firm support for Shiite parties and Syria’s supposed backing of former Ba’athists suggest their strategic play for power in the post-Saddamist, post-occupation state of Iraq. An optimistic scenario is that the new Iraq will begin to enjoy the fruits of sovereignty after the US pull out in 2011 but it is important to acknowledge that external actors will be interested in affecting the fledgling state. The country’s vast supply of oil and its geo-strategic importance will bring a motley crew of suitors, vying for better economic, political and trade relations in the future.

The newly freed state will invite several strategic moves from regional players like Syria and Iran and this will have a substantial impact on the internal state of Iraq and on Middle East power politics. So before we discount the recent controversy between Iraq and Syria, let us remember not to throw the baby out with the ‘ba’ath’ water.