Afghanistan’s Elections – A future of possibilities

- By Ambika Vishwanath

August, 2009

Afghanistan’s elections are a complicated exercise in democracy. A raging insurgency in the south threatened to close voting centers, and cut of the fingers of those who have had the courage to vote and sport the indelible ballot ink. Despite these threats, people came out, albeit in small numbers, to express their desire for change. Of the 41 candidates almost half have ties to armed militias, and most of the tribal leaders have promised widespread violence if they do not win. And amidst all this, fraud and the claims of many that President Karzai is buying votes endanger the poll’s credibility. Yet despite the dangers and the oppositions, the presidential and provincial council elections have provided a crucial opportunity to Afghanistan and her people, to embrace the freedom of suffrage.

At the most basic level and one that is extremely important, the concept of an election provides an essential mechanism of accountability of the Afghan government to the people. At a time when the Afghan people are deeply disappointed with the development in their country, and are no longer optimistic about efforts to remove the Taliban, these elections, and future ones, are an affirmation to the people that they hold their future in their own hands. Ultimately if the major power brokers in the country legitimately accept the outcome of the elections, in a non violent change or continuation of power, it will be a strong indication that Afghanistan is moving beyond the fissures that have historically plagued the country. Whether any of the candidates reach an outright majority and the others do not cry fraud and unleash street protests will be a critical test of these elections. It is also important that in the coming weeks people believe that these elections were not only internally clean, but were an internal decision and not one that was imposed from abroad.

Afghanistan has not had a single peaceful transfer of power, via an electoral process, until 2005 when Hamid Karzai was elected president. Ethnically Pashtun, Karzai was sworn in as president of the interim government which was established in 2002, and then was elected by the people in the national elections of 2005. Though Karzai swept the last elections with almost 60% of the votes, his popularity had fallen in the run up to these elections due to numerous allegations of corruption and fraud. His main electoral base, the south, is tightly controlled by the Taliban; who were using historic ethnic hatred of the Tajik’s and other tactics, to rally the Pashtun population and ensure minimal voting in certain areas.

Karzai’s main challenger Abdullah, a former Foreign Minister, enjoys considerable support in the north, where security is much better and voter turnout is believed to have been much higher. Dr. Ashraf Ghani a technocrat, who has spent more than two decades outside of the country, has an extremely small base and a rating of only 5-6%. Yet he is attempting to change the way Afghanistan’s politics is conducted and used other mediums, such as the internet, to reach out to people. Though not a serious contender to Karzai or Abdullah, he represents a shift in Afghan elections, a shift that is likely to gain more ground and prominence in the future of Afghan politics.

Regardless of who wins, in an outright majority or in the second round in October (which is the procedure if no candidate receives 51% of the votes), it is the legitimacy of the process that will remain important. The process will also be remembered as an indication of the military strength of the Afghan government and their ability to have ensured that people had a secure forum to express themselves. Initial viewpoints of the voting process have been mostly positive, and in areas were security measures were put in place Afghans have braved Taliban threats and voted.

The future of these elections and the process will also rest on the appeal of the vision of security forces to safeguard the Afghan people while they vote, in contrast to the one set forth by the Taliban who are determined to disrupt the process. The leaders of the group called for a boycott of the elections, and had openly threatened violence and harm, especially in the south. There were a number of attacks and other intimidation tactics in the days leading up the elections, as well a few in the morning of voting day. The more the security forces, Afghan as well as international, can reassure people that they will be safe, during such a process and after, and follow through with this claim, the more people will believe that the strength of the Taliban is limited.

Of course this does not mean that the Taliban is anywhere close to being defeated; on the contrary, in many parts of the country they are gaining ground. A peaceful and credible election process, that sustains itself for the future, will serve as important psychological indicators against the perceived power of the Taliban, and provide a new avenue from rising insecurity and disillusionment.

Most importantly this process provides a new opportunity for improved and effective governance, both at the presidential and local levels. Of the 41 candidates who had registered for president, only a handful of them are serious contenders for the post. Several of these candidates were running simply because they believe that if they receive a substantial number of votes they are sure to be given a powerful ministry or portfolio. These positions will then give them the ability to directly influence the running of the country and effect positive change. Dr. Frozan Fana, one of the two female candidates, had picked up the mantle of her late husband, and is working towards changing the status of women in the country. Sangin Muhammad Rahmani, a retired air force colonel, campaigns on bicycle, and has an aim towards improving the housing situation for ordinary Afghans. There are many others like them who seek to represent the people and correct the many ills that plague their political system.

The local provincial council elections are especially important as they will deliver governance that Afghan’s experience in their daily lives. Good governance can address not only the development concerns of the country, but also the counterinsurgency efforts. Afghans are deeply angry and disillusioned with the poor governance they have received over the last few years, from lack of security and stability, to rampant corruption and extortion by government officials. This lack of governance also provides the Taliban with key mobilization opportunities. While it is easy to believe that these elections will do little to change the paucity of good governance, as was the case in the previous elections, with the increase in the number of candidates and the range of ideology presented by others, there is a possibility that a shift is underway, even if it is small and localized.

These elections have been fraught with danger, thousands have not voted for fear of the Taliban, candidates have been bought, and people are poised and ready to scream fraud. If there is no outright winner, there will be a second round between the top two contenders, and with both scrambling for supporters, voters and alliances, the process might be uglier. Yet it is important to remember that elections in this war-torn country are being held for the second time in their history, and it is a testament to the people who have chosen to believe in the process. With the voting completed, the process has begun; and this coupled with a peaceful change in government will be another step and a chance for the Afghan men and women to write their own future.