The Future of Pakistan, 2002

ISBN No. 818826200-5

“It is almost vital for decision makers and opinion shapers in India particularly, and the international community generally, to seriously look at this very readable study packed with empirical data to support the analysis.” - Jasjit Singh, in The Indian Express, 2002.

“I completely agree with the way you have described tensions in the military and the uncertainties about General Musharraf’s ability to control…… a really, really fabulous report.” -Jessica Stern, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University


The point of departure for this project is Pakistan’s social, economic and security environment on the eve of General Musharraf’s presidential referendum on April 30, 2002 – specifically Pakistan’s situation as narrated by him in his famous speeches of January 12, 2002 and April 5, 2002. The analysis presented by the President suggests that Pakistan has reached the limits of its chosen political and economic model. He has recommended that the country needs to make a break from the past and carve a new future.

The referendum on the presidency formalises General Musharraf’s rule in Pakistan. But undercurrents of criticism at the time of referendum expose realities beneath the process. They also raise questions about the stability of the Musharraf regime and Pakistan’s future.

With Pakistan’s central role in the coalition against terror, it is essential to understand the course Pakistan’s internal situation might take in the future, as it would have wide international ramifications. There are many studies done on Pakistan’s relations with India or Pakistan’s past. But there is hardly any comprehensive publication available on Pakistan’s current situation – post September 11, 2001 – and especially the one that looks into the future.

This report covers many issues.

  • Economy
  • Politics and Society