Shifting Sands: Instability in Undefined Asia, 2003

ISBN No. 818826203-X

“Excellent report, based on an original analysis methodology that draws interesting conclusions about the future of a highly destabilized and uncertain region.” -Gareth Evans, President, International Crisis Group.

“In today’s world it is hard to imagine any study being more timely and relevant…. I find much of your analysis and many of your conclusions very persuasive.” - Katherine Marshall, Councillor to the President of the World Bank.


The report addresses tensions between the impact of events and underlying structural realities in Undefined Asia – consisting of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Though undefined as it is outside any established institutional arrangements or group of nations, it is interlinked by oil, terrorism, and strategic concerns of big powers.

As the US military involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq creates a spell of uncertainty many questions are bound to come to surface. Will the US actions in Undefined Asia primarily determine the future of the region? Or are there internal dynamics, which render US actions superficial?

Many of the predictions made in Shifting Sands have proved to be correct within a few months of its publication. The report had predicted the withdrawal of American forces from Saudi Arabia, armed skirmishes between Afghanistan and Pakistan, rise of terrorism in Undefined Asia following the US victory in Baghdad. Many other predictions await the test of time. In order to understand what will happen in the world’s largest hot spot in the first decade of the twenty first century, the report is a must read for everyone.