A joint delegation of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) and the Strategic Foresight Group (SFG) held consultations with the Disarmament Ambassadors of the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council (P5 countries) in June and August 2022 within the framework of the ‘Normandy P5 Initiative on Global Security and Catastrophic Risks’. The Geneva-based P5 diplomats included the following:

�        Li Song, Disarmament Ambassador of People’s Republic of China

�        Yann Hwang, Disarmament Ambassador of France

�        Andrey Belousov, Disarmament Ambassador of Russia

�        Aidan Liddle, Disarmament Ambassador of UK

�       Aud-Frances McKernan, Acting Permanent Representative of the United States to the Conference on Disarmament.

The consultations mainly included issues related to strategic risk reduction and nuclear disarmament.

There is a breakdown of communication and dialogue since February 2022. The fact that only France, UK and US and issued a joint statement – similar to the joint pledge of 3 January 2022 – on 1 August 2022 at the opening of the NPT review conference with strong condemnation of Russia for its attack on Ukraine, and China issued a strong condemnation of the United States in its address to the NPT Review Conference, shows that the P5 are currently split into two groups.

However, all of the P5 diplomats stressed on the need for revival of the official P5 dialogue in the future because of its confidence-building value when the geopolitical context allows it to happen.

Under the circumstances, top priority has to be the revival of dialogue and communication in whatever format possible. If the geo-political situation permits, the 60th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 2022 can provide a possible opportunity to resume dialogue. Also, the G-20 summit in Indonesia in November 2022 can provide another opportunity.

If an official dialogue or officially sponsored experts’ dialogue is not possible, it is essential to explore dialogue mechanisms outside the official process. This is precisely what GCSP and SFG are engaged in, with the Normandy for Peace Initiative of the Normandy Region and support from the Future of Life Institute. It is particularly necessary to consider the implications of emerging technologies for strategic risk reduction, since this issue may not be addressed at the official level until broader issues of strategic risk reduction and doctrines are addressed whenever the official dialogue at the experts’ level resumes.