"Of the Day"

Pakistan's economy show few reforms. By 2006, there will be crisis all over in this modern state. The country's dismal economic performance would enforce largescale unemployment as a result of which, an increasing number of rural youth will join Jihadi outfits, making it difficult for the army to be in control

Sundeep Waslekar

International Centre for Peace InitiativesA report on Indo-Pak relationships by Sundeep Waslekar. Founder of the International Centre for peace Initiatives and the Strategic Foresight Group, states another dimension of tension is coming up between the two countries - one that will revolve around a water crisis in the border areas of the neighbours.

The report, The Future of Pakistan, is a culmination of twelve years of research on Pakistan and concentrates on the issues that will emerge between these south Asian neighbours by 2010.

Mr.Waslekar said, "We have conducted a detailed analysis of Pakistan's economy. At present, the country is caught in intense provincial conflict between Punjab and Sind over water. By 2004 or 2005, the situation will further deteriorate and every year, the deterioration will multiply. By 2010, Pakistan will have reached its threshold over water and by then, India will also have lost its groundwater levels in its border states, namely Rajasthan, Gujarat and Punjab. By the end of the decade, the water crisis will intensify and may drag the two countries to the warfront."

Pakistan might also seek a consolidation of its politics and economy by taking a stricter stand towards India, Mr.Waslekar said."We have looked at the possible implications of economic factors on political development and vice versa. The Pakistan army is divided into two sets of army officers : one, which favours the western alliance and the other, which is fundamentalist and the closely linked with jihadi outfits. The first set may raise its voice first against General Musharaff if they smell he is losing popularity. The fundamentalist set, which is upset with the General over not bringing Konduz bodies with due honour, may also look for an alternative soon."

Mr.Waslekar added : "Pakistan's economy show few reforms. By 2006, there will be crisis all over in this modern state. The country's dismal economic performance would enforce largescale unemployment as a result of which, an increasing number of rural youth will join Jihadi outfits, making it difficult for the army to be in control."Mr. Waslekar said about two lakh young men in Pakistan belong to different Jihadi outfits. He added: "If Pakistan is to survive, it will have to crack down on these Jihadis. It will also have to concentrate on the rural economy. It will have to put an end to its conflicts with India and curbs its interference in Afghanistan"