New Delhi, Nov 16 (UNI) If India and Pakistan fail to consolidate the gains made at the January 2004 SAARC Summit at Islamabad, the two countries will suffer enormously in terms of socio-political damage and economic, military and diplomatic costs even without fighting a war, warns a report.

The Siachen conflict alone will cost India Rs 7,200 crores and Pakistan Rs 1,800 crores in the next five years. Together they will lose about 1,500 soldiers in the next five years in Siachen without fighting a war. If the Kashmir conflict continues, 45,000 patients may report to hospitals for psychiatric diseases every year during the next five years.

"If the troops are mobilised again in the future on the pattern of 2002 for a year, it will cost India 0.46 per cent of GDP and Pakistan 2.25 per cent of GDP," says the report.

Former Pakistan Foreign Secretary Niaz Naik, in his foreword to the report, says, ''Once the euphoria of the South Asian summit settles, rational and systematic efforts will be needed to bring about the change. It is therefore necessary to have an in-depth understanding of the costs involved in a conflictual relationship and the benefits that can be accrued by reconciliation and peace building.'' Ms Ilmas Futehally and Ms Semu Bhatt, who co-authored the report for Strategic Foresight Group (SFG), were supported by researchers from India and Pakistan in this exercise.

Strategic Foresight Group, considered to be India's prominent independent think tank in foreign policy and national security arena, works in conjunction with International Centre for Peace Initiatives (ICPI), South Asia's longest sustaining institution in the Track II Diplomacy.

It says India and Pakistan have followed a ''swing'' model of relations whereby the pendulum of the relationship swings from one end to the other -- conflict in May 1998 to peace in February 1999 to conflict in May 1999 to peace in November 2001 to conflict in December 2001 to peace in April 2003 to further peace in January 2004.

''Kashmir is a quarter per cent conflict with the Kashmir valley accounting for only a quarter per cent of the combined population, area and economy of India and Pakistan. If peace does not prevail and terrorism continues, Kashmir will see the death of 6,000 civilians, 10,000 terrorists and 2,500 security personnel during 2004-08. There is a risk that 7,800 people will disappear in Kashmir,'' points out the report.

The Politicide (political leaders killed) in Kashmir has been just under 500 since 1989. Kashmir lost 27 million tourist from 1989-02 leading to tourism revenue loss of Rs. 16,500 crore, it says.

In the 57 years of hostility between India and Pakistan, says the report, an assessment of the cost of conflict has been limited to military expenditure and opportunity cost of trade. The SFG's report takes into account comprehensive economic costs, socio-political damage, military, diplomatic and human costs and even the implications of the 'nuking' of Mumbai and Karachi.

The report has estimated Gross Terror-economy Product (GTP) of Kashmir and Pakistan and likely financial and human costs that the two countries will incur in the next five years if they do not consolidate the gains made at the Islamabad Summit.