Factors in restructuring India-Pakistan relations

  Perhaps rather than focusing only on the Baglihar dam and playing a minimal role in facilitating a painfully slow arbitration, the World Bank should also be looking into the possibility of broadening the scope of the Indus Water Basin Treaty

Boutros Boutros Ghali, former secretary general of the United Nations, was the first to highlight the looming threat of water scarcity facing the world and the serious threat of conflicts it will cause. Subsequently, meetings of the World Water Forum indicate a growing alarm over the scarcity of water worldwide; this is a crisis that can only get worse. The apparent tension over sharing water resources is becoming particularly acute in the subcontinent, where India and Pakistan have been sharing waters of the Indus basin.

Pakistan needs a water sharing agreement with India given that the Indus river system originates from the Himalayan range, now lying across the border. The Indus Waters Treaty was concluded in 1960 to divide the Indus basin waters by giving control of its three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) to Pakistan, and the three eastern rivers (Ravi, Sutlej and Beas) to India. The World Bank brokered the Treaty which has ensured undisrupted water supplies despite five decades of lingering tensions and three wars.

Pressure on the Indus Waters Treaty has grown appreciably over the past few years with the increasing demand for water. The Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly of India has even called for scrapping the Treaty to harness the enormous hydroelectric power potential of the Chenab. But scrapping the Treaty altogether will not be taken lightly by the international community �€” or by Pakistan.

On our side of the border, per capita water availability is declining steadily. It is expected to reach the threshold level of 1,000 cubic meters per capita by 2010. The scarcity is already causing problems between provinces. There is a visible lack of safe drinking water and irrigation supplies in many areas are inadequate. Reduction in discharge of water into the sea is already causing intrusion of seawater in the Indus delta and resulting in serious environmental damage. Given this scenario, Pakistan cannot afford to forgo any part of its share of the Indus basin waters.

Sharing water between two states is not easy. The problematic nature of relations between India and Pakistan does not make this any easier. The Strategic Foresight Group in India has argued that Pakistan needs fresh water sources in areas where dams can be built and has been trying to secure parts of the Kashmir valley and Jammu primarily to control the Chenab. The Group also believes that Pakistan will never give equal rights to Kashmiris and will instead make it a semi-autonomous region to allow the federal government to directly exercise control over its water resources.

Leaving aside the arguments concerning Pakistan�€™s intentions in supporting the cause of Kashmir, one cannot deny the need to find a durable solution to the water dispute. This requires a more comprehensive and sensitive approach to the problem based on a realistic assessment of the water situation and the two countries�€™ needs. The Group suggests a holistic approach to the Indus Basin waters and integrated infrastructure development that maximises its long- and short-term capacity. Perhaps rather than focusing only on the Baglihar dam and playing a minimal role to facilitate a painfully slow arbitration, the World Bank should also be looking into the possibility of broadening the scope of the Indus Water Basin Treaty.

I concur with the stakeholders who maintain that if water is to be managed as an essential commodity, it will be best to avoid divisive or overtly marketised policies and instead develop a bottom-up plan aimed primarily at the need to ensure sustainable access to the subcontinent�€™s river waters on both sides of the Pakistan-India border.

The writer is a researcher with diverse experience in the development sector. He can be reached at [email protected]

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