Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, during his talks with Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf at Hyderabad House last week in Delhi, assured him that India would not do anything to harm the interests of Pakistan with regard to the Baglihar hydel project.

The prime minister emphasised that the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) has stood the test of time for more than 45 years. He told Musharraf that India would look at any credible evidence that was provided and which came in the way of honouring the commitments.

The Pakistani president questioned India�€™s plan to construct gates beneath the pondage, claiming it was not needed to produce electricity. According to the IWT, the pondage could be calculated either on the basis of design or operation, he said. India has opted for the latter. The project should have as its basis, design, but the operational basis was the cause of �€œthe dispute,�€ he said.

Pakistan alleged that India was building gated structures to flood the Pakistan side in times of war and hostilities, which India has denied. Pakistan has not only opposed Baglihar Hydel Project (BHP) on River Chenab in Doda, 160 km north of Jammu it has opposed the Wullar Barrage/Tulbul navigation project on the Jhelum, the Swalakote Hydroelectric project and Dul Hasti Hydroelectric projects on the Chenab and Krishanganga hydro-electric project on Krishanganga in Jammu and Kashmir.

Under the IWT the waters of the eastern rivers comprising the Sutlej, Beas and Ravi (annual flow is estimated at around 33 million acre ft) are allocated to India and three western rivers comprising Indus, Jhelum and Chenab (135 million acres ft) go to Pakistan.

Early this year in January, V K Duggal, Water Secretary, and his Pakistani counterpart, Ashfaq Mehmood, held discussions on the technical points, including the pondage level, the gated spillway and the level of intake tunnels.

Neutral expert

But the talks collapsed with Islamabad demanding the scrapping of the BHP. Islamabad stepped up its diplomatic offensive and briefed envoys of various countries, including the US and China. Later, they asked the World Bank to appoint a neutral expert to arbitrate between the two countries.

On April 20, Pakistan held out a threat �€” of approaching the World Bank on the Kishenganga hydro-power project being built in Jammu and Kashmir if the proposed discussions with the technical team from the Indus Water Commission of India failed on May 7.

It is not that India alone has built dams and launched hydel projects. Pakistan too has built the Mangla and Tarbela dams and several other storage facilities on the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. In spite of this, Pakistan�€™s per capita availability has dropped from 5600 cubic meters at the time of Independence to 1200 cubic meters in 2005. It�€™s expected to reach the threshold level of 1000 cubic meters by 2010.

The groundwater level is falling in 26 of 45 canal commands and because of the heavy silt load in the Indus, Pakistan�€™s water storage capacity is declining. About 50 per cent is expected to go by 2010 which would hit Pakistan�€™s major crops: cotton and wheat.

Sundeep Waslekar, President of the Strategic Foresight Group, in his work �€˜The Final Settlement writes, �€œThe army leadership is keen on ensuring water supply to Punjab at the cost of Sindh. Senior officers, including General Pervez Musharraf, have purchased land in Punjab.�€

�€œThere is a direct conflict between and people of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan wants the Kashmir Valley and part of Jammu to be able to build dams to divert rivers for Punjab�€™s benefit at the cost of Kashmiris,�€ points out Waslekar.